EAGLE Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - April 10, 2019 - The Economist is launching an updated version of EAGLE (Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator), a live-updating statistical prediction system for golf tournaments, ahead of the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 11th-14th. EAGLE is a cutting-edge, pinpoint-accurate machine-learning model. It was trained on nearly 2 million rows of data—every hole score in a major since 2001, and every round score in an officially sanctioned event since 2006—and simulates the entire remaining portion of a tournament 10,000 times every two minutes.

Before EAGLE, golf fans had no way to measure mathematically who was truly ahead or behind in a tournament, or the impact of each score on the final outcome. Dan Rosenheck, the model’s designer and The Economist’s data editor, was inspired to build EAGLE after he tried and failed to find any publicly available estimate of Jordan Spieth’s win probability on the final day of the 2016 Masters just before his epic collapse. Rosenheck says: “Only with big data and modern computing power can the true state of play in the majors be revealed at any given instant.”

Updates to EAGLE include both improvements to the algorithm and additional training data. Mr Rosenheck painstakingly compiled a database of tee times for every player in every round in every major of the millennium, making it possible for him to re-create the chronological order in which holes were actually played. This level of detail vastly improves within-day projections.

Now, connoisseurs and casual fans alike can follow the majors in real time with statistical insight that surpasses even the most sophisticated proprietary models used by consultants and bettors. Rosenheck says: “Golf tournaments feature dozens of players on the course at once. All of them are constantly taking shots that affect not only their own chances of victory, but also those of every other player. No human—nor even the "wisdom of crowds" captured in betting markets—could hope to synthesise and digest all of this information in real time.”

To visually showcase EAGLE’s new prediction engine, The Economist has partnered with Signal Noise, The Economist Group’s digital design studio, to build an immersive, interactive data-visualisation hub at eagle.economist.com, which displays seamlessly on mobile, tablet and desktop platforms. Hem Patel, Head of Partnerships at Signal Noise, says that “by merging the statistical modelling expertise of The Economist’s data team with Signal Noise’s design, visualisation and engineering skills, EAGLE creates an unparalleled experience for golf fans. EAGLE creates a compelling narrative to the game of golf, giving fans foresight into what’s about to happen hole by hole and player by player.”

This new site will contain intuitive, elegant charts of EAGLE’s up-to-the-minute calculations for every player: their probability of each score outcome on every hole, predicted final score to par, and chances of winning the tournament or finishing among the top five, ten or 20. The visualisations will enable users to select particular players as their favourites and follow them throughout a tournament, and to look back in time and see EAGLE’s analysis from any previous point in the event.

Dell Technologies is the exclusive sponsor of EAGLE. Dell Technologies branding will be featured on the dedicated content hub, and as part of a 90-second “Making of EAGLE” video which will appear on the EAGLE hub throughout the 2019 golf season. Dell Technologies will also launch a print and online campaign on economist.com to promote EAGLE's content hub during each of the four 2019 golf majors.

“Dell Technologies is proud to sponsor EAGLE because it’s a powerful—and fun—example of the power of real-time data insights through machine learning,” said Elizabeth Matthews, Senior Vice President, Brand/Creative Marketing, Dell Technologies.

The programme will be supported by a comprehensive marketing effort that includes social and digital campaigns across The Economist media network and throughout the majors tournament season.

“We pride ourselves on developing unique solutions for our clients to put their brand at the right place, at the right time and with the right audience, said Nicolas Sennegon, EVP, Chief Commercial Officer, The Economist Group. “The program we have developed for Dell Technologies positions their brand at the nexus of artificial intelligence and the major golf tournaments, and connects Dell Technologies with The Economist’s highly-engaged, global audience in a trusted, brand-safe environment.”

In addition to the EAGLE sponsorship, The Economist Group is developing an interactive data project for Dell Technologies that will launch later this summer. The project examines the needs of data-intensive businesses through creative data storytelling and leverages The Economist Group's capabilities: from the insights-driven content development and storytelling to the data visualisation expertise of Signal Noise.

To talk to Dan Rosenheck and find out more about EAGLE please contact:

Tom Amos (US) at tomamos@economist.com or 212 541 0583 and

Holly Donahue/The Economist (UK), hollydonahue@economist.com /+44 (0) 20 7576 8379

About The Economist

With a growing global audience and a reputation for insightful analysis and perspective on every aspect of world events, ​The Economist is one of the most widely recognised and well-read current affairs publications in the world. In addition to the weekly print and digital editions and website, ​The Economist publishes Espresso, a daily news app, Global Business Review, a bilingual English-Chinese product and Economist VR, a virtual-reality app. Economist Radio produces several podcasts a week and Economist Films produces short- and long-form video. ​The Economist maintains robust social communities on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Snapchat, LINE, Medium and other social networks. A recipient of many editorial and marketing awards, ​The Economist was named the most trusted news source by the 2017 Trusting News Project Report.